How’s The Market, in Walton?

The featured image represents the number of higher value ($600k+) single family detached resale Active Listings in four elementary schools (East Side, Mt Bethel, Sope Creek, Timber Ridge) that feed into Walton High School.

It is not surprising to see the dip that occurred earlier in the year when the virus took hold in the U.S. It also may not be unexpected this year to see the typical spring activity pushed out a few months as the news outlets reported a bounce or recovery in the market after the nationwide shutdown began to ease. And of course one hears again and again that the housing inventory is low, mortgage rates are the lowest ever, and the pandemic panic is being replaced by the in-town get-out-of-Dodge movement to the suburbs as everyone needs more space to work and school virtually from home.

The following chart is helpful for those of us that like visuals, as it puts into perspective what is happening in your world…assuming you are part of the hyperlocal market described in the opening.

The activity over the last 11 years can be divided into three phases which can be described as following.

  • The first phase of 2010 – 2012 generally represents the pent-up demand coming out of the housing market recession that began in 2007 and persisted into 2009.
  • The second phase of 2013 and 2014, which had lower numbers (refer to the table below), was a cooling off period from the excitement in the recent previous years as homeowners evaluated the market and their motivation.
  • The third phase that we are in now and began in 2015 saw an increase in the number of homeowners taking action to place their home on the market with a growing confidence in the outcome; i.e., a sale at an acceptable and predictable price.

What will occur the remainder of 2020 and next year is up for discussion on the mainstream news and social media, at upcoming holiday parties and around the table at local establishment. What we know now is that although the number of Active Listings is not at its lowest in the past 11 years, it is near bottom. That can bode well for homeowners wanting to sell, and be a stumbling block for those wanting to purchase.

I prepare daily for the opportunity to best serve my client’s interest.

Visit my website to learn more about my business model, the Best Home Marketing approach to selling, and to view a number of Walton stats by price range and elementary school.

WaltonStats.com

WaltonUpdate.com

MillerGroupRealty.com

BestHomeMarketing.com

Walton High School Inventory Low (!?)

Is “Walton High School Inventory Low” a statement or question?

I heard it again today, the “it” being that metro Atlanta inventory is low. While that relative fact is important to some, it does not really reflect the MGR market; i.e., the Walton single family detached resales over $600k in East Side, Mount Bethel, Sope Creek and Timber Ridge. The following charts and table illustrate the point. Continue reading “Walton High School Inventory Low (!?)”

Higher Value Walton Resale Contracts Surpass 2019

This past week, Week 32, produced another strong showing yielding 137 YTD binding contracts in the Walton High School resale single family detached $600k+ market.

Although 2020 took the early lead over last year, the economic shutdown prompted buyers and sellers to pause and 2020 fell behind last year YTD totals beginning Week #17, and continued to trail until last week. While this “recovery” is great news for the higher value Walton market the boasting needs to be tempered a bit as 2018 offers another benchmark to monitor.

 202020192018201720162015
YTD Wk 321371321431029790

Weekly binding agreement charts for 2015 – 2019 are available on the Covid-19 Stats page of the Miller Group Realty website.

While the good news is that the number of binding contracts is up, the bad news is that this activity is one factor contributing to the low (but not historically low) number of Active Listings. The following chart compares the month of August over the past 11 years. One answer to the shortage is to have more homeowners decide now is the time to make a move.

Contact Brady to discuss moving plans in the Walton High School and greater East Cobb area. His exclusive focus on the higher value Walton homes may well qualify him to best advise new clients.

Is The Walton High School Housing Market Immune?

Is the Walton High School housing market immune to COVID-19? Given the charts below, it would seem that it contracted the virus in March, developed the antibodies and is now on its way to recovering.

Miller Group Realty (MGR) has been tracking since March the weekly higher value ($600,000+) binding contract activity in four elementary schools (East Side, Mt Bethel, Sope Creek, Timber Ridge) that feed Walton. Continue reading “Is The Walton High School Housing Market Immune?”

What’s Real in Real Estate?

What’s reality?

A higher value sale in the Miller Group Realty (MGR) target market was recently recorded. The MLS indicates it went under contract in only 11 days at 100% of the asking price. That’s pretty remarkable given the near shut-down of the housing market beginning mid-March due to the Covid-19 virus.

Detailed research, however, reveals a different story; i.e., the property had actually been on/off the market four times over the past 11 months, required 247 days to go under contract, and finally sold for 80% of the original list price. Continue reading “What’s Real in Real Estate?”

Is Covid-19 Negatively Impacting the Walton High School Housing Market?

Is Covid-19 negatively impacting the Walton High School housing market? While using a larger market, such as the greater metro Atlanta area, would likely provide better insight the following is pertinent to those with higher value homes in Walton.

The following charts contrast the number of resale listings priced $600,000+ that went under contract the first 12 week of the year.

Using the Dow Jones Industry Average as a backdrop and frame of reference it appeared that the 2020 steady decline in the number of binding agreements was in sync with the financial market. Both peaked about Week 8, and then began to decline. Is there a connection?

2020 DJIA2020 Binding 3-21-20

It seemed so, until past year’s data was collected. Several recent years mimic to a degree the current trend while other years exhibited the seasonal crescendo one has come to expect from the early spring to early summer period.

2019 Binding 3-21-202018 Binding 3-21-202017 Binding 3-21-202016 Binding 3-21-202015 Binding 3-21-20

The Walton housing market provides a small data sample and therefore trends are difficult to detect. With that said, the number of binding contracts through the first 12 weeks of 2020 is well ahead of recent years. Will that pace continue?

I personally believe a slowdown has begun in the Walton area as well as across the country. There is just too much uncertainty surrounding the virus at the present to make any specific projections with a high level of confidence. Are we entering another “2008”? Time will tell. What I do believe to be certain is that anyone with a house currently on the market had better adjust their outlook (lower) if they want to reach the closing table in the next four to eight weeks.

Bloom or Bug?

Bloom or bug? What gets you thinking about making a move?

Blooms are about to appear with spring just around the corner. We don’t need a calendar to know it. Our eyes and nose tell us. Warmer weather. More sunshine. Greener grass. Homeowners transform into amateur gardeners. And perennials, shrubs and trees show us with new growth out of the ground or on old wood, and, yes, shortly thereafter blooms. Visual images and sense of smell are powerful motivators.

The bug in this case is not the insect but the emotion and mindset that prompts one to begin a search online, visit an Open House, drive neighborhoods, converse with friends, pause social media feeds displaying new construction, peruse a luxury home magazine, tune-in a DIY program, or swear off that home repair budget buster?

The arrival of spring and early summer drives activity in the metro Atlanta area. This graph of 2019 is similarly repeated year after year. The seasonal trend is pretty consistent.

2019 Walton Resale New Listings By Month

Miller Group Realty has an exclusive focus on this market. Contract Brady to discuss your plans.

Walton High School Housing Market Performance

The monthly Walton High School real estate stats I publish to my website takes almost a full day as the data is not readily available from the MLS system and due to the time involved in updating the charts and preparing and uploading the images. The fun part begins when the work is completed; i.e., comparing and contrasting what has transpired relative to other areas, schools, price ranges and over time.

The featured image above (and fully labeled below) depicts the percentage change in the resale (excludes new construction) average sales price over the last four years of detached homes (excludes condos, town homes, land, and lots) in the Walton High School district versus the four major metro Atlanta counties of Dekalb, Fulton, Gwinnett and Cobb (excluding Walton High School). Which line represents Walton? Think school colors. Continue reading “Walton High School Housing Market Performance”

Inventory Shortage??

Housing inventory shortage is the conversation of the day, and has been for a while. It seems to be an oxymoron that sellers seem to feel anxious that houses are just sitting and clocking more and more days on market, while buyers bemuse that there are few choices due to the lack of inventory. What gives?

I decided to take a look at the number of Active Listings in my area of concentration – the higher value homes in Walton High School. As of today, 7/9/19, there are 113 resales (not new construction) of detached (not attached, land, lots, rentals) homes on the market priced at or above $600,000. That seemed like a lot so I went back in time to compare that number to prior years.

This chart shows the results. It’s no surprise to see that July 2009 had only 33 Active Listings. The housing market was so bad at the time that only those with big motivation decided to sell or at least attempted to sell.

Walton Active Listings 10-yr History

It appears that everyone seemed to think the recession was over in 2010. Note the increase from the prior year and that the July 2010 inventory was the same then as today (113).

In retrospect, while Realtors and buyers would like to see more homeowners offering their house for sale, our current level of inventory is better (higher) than it has been for years.

Back to the issue or feeling that the market has gone dry. Stats are likely to show (subject of another post) that Right Pricing (an original list price that attracts offers without the need for reductions) is more effective than starting high. Are there fewer buyers in the market today at this price point, or are there fewer buyers willing to overpay?

Selling a house is not rock science. Experienced and novice agents alike perform this exercise every day of the year. The challenge is to set the right environment to give the seller the very best opportunity to net more at closing, in less time.

Visit Miller Group Realty online and spend a few minutes with Best Home Marketing to begin to appreciate why I may be best positioned to represent the interest of those with higher value Walton High School homes in the elementary schools of East Side, Mount Bethel, Sope Creek and Timber Ridge.

Cobb County Tax Bill

As a reminder, homeowners have 45 days after receiving their Annual Notice of Assessment to file a written appeal. (The notice includes the deadline date.)

In case you were not aware, the county does make periodic onsite visits to update their  property record from which to more accurately determine fair market values and/or make other determinations. More information can be found at www.CobbAssessor.org.

Don’t rely on the county’s opinion of value when preparing to sell. A Realtor and/or appraisal are a better resource for determining the potential sale price.