A couple of interesting points to make after collecting and viewing the most recent Walton monthly data for single family detached resales.
The normal shape of the line chart representing the number of Walton Active Listings in all price ranges changed in 2020. The typical cyclical trend is represented by a steep increase early in the year, peaking early to mid summer, and then slowly declining through the remainder of the year. This year’s activity still had the mid-year bell shaped curve one would expect however it never reached the early summer highs of previous years. The later half of 2020 thus far has shown the same general rate of decline although reaching a low not seen over the past four years. The same narrative applies to the higher value ($600k+) Walton market.
New construction Active Listings (that includes under construction and to be built) numbers were fairly consistent from Oct ’16 through Oct ’19. Since then the number of Active Listings have been declining.
Comparing the number of Active Listings (inventory) for the month of October, going back to 2015, it appears that seller’s of higher value ($600k+) homes had a more difficult time attracting buyers. Specifically, about 65% of all Active Listings in Oct ’20 were over $600k compared to the fairly consistent 45% experienced in the previous five Octobers.
Where to look if planning to make a Walton purchase in East Side, Mount Bethel, Sope Creek or Timber Ridge:
under $600k in Mount Bethel and East Side
$600s in East Side and Sope Creek
$700s in Mount Bethel and Sope Creek
$800s – $1m in East Side and Sope Creek
$1m – $1.5m in East Side and Sope Creek
over $1.5m in Sope Creek
Buyers not finding their ideal Walton home should approach Brady to discuss their situation. Perhaps his exclusive hyperlocal focus can best prepare the buyer to make a successful offer on a new listing as well as to identify potential off market properties.
The featured image charts the cumulative number of Walton High School resale binding contracts in East Side, Mt Bethel, Sope Creek and Timber Ridge priced over $600k through Week 43 (ending Oct 23rd for this year) for years 2015 -2020.
Which line represents 2020?
Hint…2020 is like The Little Engine That Could, the black line, steadily out performing previous years. Few would have forecasted this back in March and April when the pandemic was increasingly spreading, businesses were closing and unemployment filings began to skyrocket.
Buyers have little to choose from the remaining Active Listings. And, homeowners with an Active Listing have to be asking themselves, “Why is my house not selling?”.
The following quantifies the feelings. Given the above criteria, the average Active Listing FMLS Total Days On Market is 129. However, and in comparison, MGR research reveals that homeowners first went public with their sales effort almost 250 days on average (after removing the top and bottom 10% of the Active Listings when ranked by TDOM).
See these and other weekly tracking illustrations by clicking here. And contact Brady to discuss the particulars of your ideal Walton or East Cobb home search, or to discuss the prospects of selling in the current market environment.
The featured image represents the number of higher value ($600k+) single family detached resale Active Listings in four elementary schools (East Side, Mt Bethel, Sope Creek, Timber Ridge) that feed into Walton High School.
It is not surprising to see the dip that occurred earlier in the year when the virus took hold in the U.S. It also may not be unexpected this year to see the typical spring activity pushed out a few months as the news outlets reported a bounce or recovery in the market after the nationwide shutdown began to ease. And of course one hears again and again that the housing inventory is low, mortgage rates are the lowest ever, and the pandemic panic is being replaced by the in-town get-out-of-Dodge movement to the suburbs as everyone needs more space to work and school virtually from home.
The following chart is helpful for those of us that like visuals, as it puts into perspective what is happening in your world…assuming you are part of the hyperlocal market described in the opening.
The activity over the last 11 years can be divided into three phases which can be described as following.
The first phase of 2010 – 2012 generally represents the pent-up demand coming out of the housing market recession that began in 2007 and persisted into 2009.
The second phase of 2013 and 2014, which had lower numbers (refer to the table below), was a cooling off period from the excitement in the recent previous years as homeowners evaluated the market and their motivation.
The third phase that we are in now and began in 2015 saw an increase in the number of homeowners taking action to place their home on the market with a growing confidence in the outcome; i.e., a sale at an acceptable and predictable price.
What will occur the remainder of 2020 and next year is up for discussion on the mainstream news and social media, at upcoming holiday parties and around the table at local establishment. What we know now is that although the number of Active Listings is not at its lowest in the past 11 years, it is near bottom. That can bode well for homeowners wanting to sell, and be a stumbling block for those wanting to purchase.
I prepare daily for the opportunity to best serve my client’s interest.
Visit my website to learn more about my business model, the Best Home Marketing approach to selling, and to view a number of Walton stats by price range and elementary school.
Is “Walton High School Inventory Low” a statement or question?
I heard it again today, the “it” being that metro Atlanta inventory is low. While that relative fact is important to some, it does not really reflect the MGR market; i.e., the Walton single family detached resales over $600k in East Side, Mount Bethel, Sope Creek and Timber Ridge. The following charts and table illustrate the point. Continue reading “Walton High School Inventory Low (!?)”→
This past week, Week 32, produced another strong showing yielding 137 YTD binding contracts in the Walton High School resale single family detached $600k+ market.
Although 2020 took the early lead over last year, the economic shutdown prompted buyers and sellers to pause and 2020 fell behind last year YTD totals beginning Week #17, and continued to trail until last week. While this “recovery” is great news for the higher value Walton market the boasting needs to be tempered a bit as 2018 offers another benchmark to monitor.
YTD Wk 32
Weekly binding agreement charts for 2015 – 2019 are available on the Covid-19 Stats page of the Miller Group Realty website.
While the good news is that the number of binding contracts is up, the bad news is that this activity is one factor contributing to the low (but not historically low) number of Active Listings. The following chart compares the month of August over the past 11 years. One answer to the shortage is to have more homeowners decide now is the time to make a move.
Contact Brady to discuss moving plans in the Walton High School and greater East Cobb area. His exclusive focus on the higher value Walton homes may well qualify him to best advise new clients.
WaltonStats.com is the easy to remember and the most direct way to obtain monthly and quarterly Walton High School housing market stats for single family detached resale listings priced over $600,000 in the four elementary schools of East Side, Mount Bethel, Sope Creek and Timber Ridge. This level of detail is possible because it represents the exclusive focus of Miller Group Realty (MGR). Continue reading “Announcing – WaltonStats.com”→
A higher value sale in the Miller Group Realty (MGR) target market was recently recorded. The MLS indicates it went under contract in only 11 days at 100% of the asking price. That’s pretty remarkable given the near shut-down of the housing market beginning mid-March due to the Covid-19 virus.
Detailed research, however, reveals a different story; i.e., the property had actually been on/off the market four times over the past 11 months, required 247 days to go under contract, and finally sold for 80% of the original list price. Continue reading “What’s Real in Real Estate?”→